Preholiday Trading

The Light Crude Continuous Contract closed at $66.13 a barrel Friday, after hitting an all-time high at $67.95 a barrel earlier in the day. A week from Monday is Labor Day, which marks the end of the summer driving season. Consequently, I believe, oil hit a short-term top Friday or will top next week.

Recent economic data show persistently high oil prices, along with higher interest rates, are slowing U.S. economic growth. Durable Goods Orders fell about 5% last month, and Walmart announced sales will be lower than expected. However, business inventories are lean. A slower economy will lower demand for oil.

The SPX daily chart below shows an orderly pullback in August. Currently, SPX is oversold enough to bounce into the Labor Day holiday. Major support is around 1,200, i.e. the 200 day MA, and Price-by-Volume bar. There are several major resistance levels working together to create strong resistance, i.e. the 10, 20, and 50 day MAs, the Parabolic SAR sell signal (red dots), and the Price-by-Volume bar, all between 1,220 and 1,225.

There's typically a bullish bias the week before a holiday, and over the first few days of a new month. However, the market has been selling into weekends (and into rallies last week), which is bear market behavior, it's a seasonally weak period, and SPX has open gaps at 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138. Oil prices and economic data will continue to move the market.

There are many important economic reports next week, which should generate a great deal of volatility, in the seasonally low volume market: Mon: None, Tue: Factory Orders, Consumer Confidence, and FOMC Minutes, Wed: Revised Q2 GDP & GDP Chain Price Deflator, and Chicago PMI. Thu: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending, ISM Index, and Auto Sales. Fri: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Hourly Earnings.

The Dow Industrials were hit hard by high oil prices recently, and closed below 10,400 Friday, while Nasdaq held up relatively well. If oil prices top next week, DIA calls (and puts on some oil stocks) may be buys on pullbacks. Also, there are several Dow components that were hit particularly hard recently.

Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Overview section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.

---

Online Trading Options Strategies - Rolling

Rolling is defined in options online trading as moving a position from one strike to another either vertically in the same month, horizontally to another month or some combination thereof.Other times, you may... Read More

Understanding The Real Rate of Return!

There is one indicator more than any other which determines the health of an economy and it is the Real Rate of Return. Furthermore this is the simplest of all indicators to understand... Read More

When Its Too Late to Save for Retirement

You are 55 years old (or somewhere around there) and your company is going to force you to retire at 65. You have $35,000 saved in your 401K and that's all. The house... Read More

Overbought/Oversold

Has your broker ever told you that a stock is "overbought" or "oversold"? He probably went on the explain that the stock you own (I hope you didn't) had gone down so far... Read More

New U.S. Mint Coins a Golden Opportunity

In April, the U.S. Mint revealed plans to strike in early 2006 new .9999 bullion coins to go after the growing world market for .9999 fine (24-karat) gold coins. Studies show that pure... Read More

How to Choose the Right Share Class

You'll want to opt for the no-load or institutional share class instead. If you're a no-load investor who is determined to buy a fund that's primarily broker-sold, go through a supermarket and opt... Read More

Use of a Franchise Business as a Family Tax Planning Strategy

Suggesting the use of a franchise business as a vehicle for family estate and tax planning. Specifically using as an example, The Car Wash Guys, a portable car wash franchise, where you will... Read More

Oil and Gasoline Price Uncertainties

The Light Crude Continuous Contract hit an all-time high at $70.85 a barrel, while Unleaded Gasoline Futures spiked 50% or $1 a gallon on Tuesday. However, oil closed the week at $67.57 a... Read More

What Age Should I Start Saving For Retirement?

Ask this question to 100 people and you will receive 100 very different answers. The fact of the matter is there is no right age to start. But don't fret (did I just... Read More

Time is Money and We Are Running Out of Both!

One of the fundamental principles of finance is the concept that $1 today is more valuable than $1 a year from now.Making adjustments for inflation, the dollar will buy less goods and services... Read More

Well Managed Investing Risks Bring Rewards!

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!" Warren Buffett (1930 - )We often listen to people who hesitate to invest in the stock market because they fear risk. There are older people... Read More

Maniac Investment

Let's first understand what maniac means. According to Webster a maniac is "mad; raging with madness; raging with disordered intellect". You don't know anyone like that, do you?There is a book that is... Read More

Critical Options Investing Tip When Trading Naked Calls and Puts

An option is a derivative trading product that is best used by investors as a hedging tool providing investing profit protection and profit enhancement. Although it is a powerful risk management tool, it... Read More

Forex Trading Best Practices

FOREX, the term for the FOReign EXchange market, is an international exchange market where currencies from many different countries are bought and sold. Both long-term hedge investors and short-term investors that seek quick... Read More

Brain Snappers and Other Wall Street Nonsense

The last time you spoke with your broker did he use any of the following words? Diversification, Price-to-earnings ratios, discretionary trading, lifting a leg (he's talking to you not your dog), leverage, divergence,... Read More

How Eating Bitumen Made Me a Better Stock Trader

Stock market trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to it. And so many paths that you can go down.Soon after we first got interested in the stock market I became... Read More

Planning for Retirement

Almost without exception, people don't start planning for their retirement early enough in their lives. Young people leaving High School or College and going into their first paid position find it difficult to... Read More

Love The Thrill of Risk? Invest in an Annuity!

With the stock market in steep decline, people are looking for safe places to invest their savings. Many banks and investment companies are pushing annuities. Annuities offer a higher interest rate than CD's,... Read More

Lobster Trapping for Investment Ideas

Recently, my family and I took a trip to Maine to visit relatives. During our stay, we toured the rocky shore lines and took in the beautiful architecture of the old towns.One sunny... Read More

Use this Simple Trick its to Buy $100 Bills Direct from your Bank for only $97

Most People just don't understand the power of using their home as a Wealth Creation Tool. How many people do you know who have lived in the same house for 10, 15 or... Read More

Can Your Annuity Do This?

Okay, so I can tell you I have sat in front of countless numbers of people who have made mistakes when purchasing and owning annuities. And I have visited people who wish they... Read More

The Basics of Tax-Free UK Financial Spread Betting

Financial Spread Betting (or Trading) offers a tax free method of speculating on financial markets.Quite simply, if you think a particular index, share, commodity, currency or sector will rise, you place an UP... Read More

Trading Tips No 7: Developing a Casino Mentality for the Day Trader

I submit that the successful day trader would profit well to adopt a casino mentality. At first glance, this sounds reckless and nothing more than a gambling attitude - but it's not. Why?... Read More

Almost Anyone Can Open A Roth IRA!

The Roth is kind of weird until you get used to it in terms of how much you can put in (contribute) each year depending on how much you earn (compensation). Because of... Read More

Why the Rich Keep Getting Richer

Rich people: fortunate, lucky, selfish, and arrogant? Or highly educated, caring, brilliant individuals? Becoming rich isn't hard, but it does require a bit of time and knowledge. Having time to get rich, educating... Read More

Trading Expert Discovers Ways To Beat Stock Market Odds With Money Management

The first point to mastering money management is that you have to understand when you're trading on the stock market is that you are playing the odds ? but unlike many forms of... Read More

Retirement ? Its Sooner Than You Think!! (Honestly)

Many people hear "retirement" and think- what? 401K? Roth vs. Traditional IRA? Stocks, bonds, mutual funds? Do they?Or do many people put money away according to the suggested amount and then simply hope... Read More

Delist My Corporation Please

It use to be said that once a company was de-listed from the NASDAQ it was the kiss of death, not so any more. With Sarbanes Oxley and all the insane reporting requirements... Read More

Issuing Warrants to Investors

When raising capital for a business venture, warrants are a common form of equity that is given to investors. A warrant is like an option ? it gives the holder the right to... Read More